Canada’s Post-Election Economic Outlook: What It Means for Real Estate Professionals

Canada’s Post-Election Economic Outlook: What It Means for Real Estate Professionals

The 2025 federal election has ushered in a new era of political leadership—and economic uncertainty. While the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a strong minority mandate, the realities of slow GDP growth, fiscal strain, and geopolitical trade risk remain unchanged. inCAN Developments has synthesized economic insights from RBC, BMO, and CIBC to help our real estate partners understand the road ahead. Below is a concise breakdown of the key macroeconomic signals and actionable strategies to help agents succeed in this evolving environment.

■ Economic Outlook: What Canada’s Top Banks Are Saying

1. Strong Minority, Stronger Fiscal Stimulus

The Liberals won 168 seats—4 shy of a majority—ensuring continued government but requiring NDP or Bloc support. All banks forecast larger deficits than promised due to stimulus, trade frictions, and political deal-making. Expected FY25/26 deficit: 2.0% of GDP or $62B.

2. Trade Frictions Threaten Growth

Tariff tensions with the U.S.—particularly in autos, steel, aluminum—are a top risk. RBC warns of a "recession-like" slowdown even without a technical recession. A potential $145B fiscal buffer may be required if trade shocks worsen.

3. Interest Rates: Easing Likely, But Not Aggressively

Bank of Canada expected to cut rates by 50–75 basis points by year-end. However, fiscal stimulus may limit the depth of these cuts. Lower rates could support buyer activity and mortgage affordability in late 2025.

4. Housing & Infrastructure Get a Boost

$25B in federal funding planned for affordable housing construction. GST eliminated on homes under $1M for first-time buyers. Infrastructure investment—including transit—is a cornerstone of the platform, further supported by Bloc and NDP allies.

■ What It Means for Agents: Strategic Recommendations

■ 1. Capitalize on Affordable Housing Momentum

Focus marketing on homes under $1M with GST savings explained simply. Launch first-time buyer webinars with mortgage brokers and financial planners. Create social media series highlighting “Rent vs. Buy” in the new stimulus era.

■ 2. Prepare for a More Competitive Listings Market

Set realistic expectations with sellers using hyper-local data. Use soft-launch strategies or “quiet listings” to test the market pre-MLS. Tie listings to long-term value narratives: infrastructure investment, school zones, employment hubs.

■ 3. Build a Dedicated Investor Segment

Identify under-supplied, infrastructure-linked growth pockets. Offer investor-specific newsletters with economic updates and cap rate trends. Host roundtables or market briefings focused on pre-construction strategy and ROI modeling.

■ 4. Strengthen CRM & Nurturing Processes

Automate check-ins with educational content tied to rate changes or policy updates. Tag and segment your database by buyer type, readiness, and budget range. Reinforce value with post-sale service referrals: renovations, moving concierge, furnishing discounts.

■ Final Thought: Trusted Advisors Win in Times of Change

With economic policy, interest rates, and geopolitical conditions in flux, homebuyers and investors are looking for more than just transactional agents—they need expert guidance. This is a critical moment to strengthen relationships, share insights, and lead with clarity. At inCAN Developments, we are committed to empowering our partners with data-driven intelligence and exclusive development opportunities that align with where the market is headed. Let’s navigate this new chapter—together.

■ Stay Connected:

To learn more about our current projects or receive a co-branded version of this report for your clients, reach out to your inCAN representative or visit www.incandevelopments.com.