Greater Toronto Area (GTA) Real Estate Market Update: Q1 2025 Overview

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) Real Estate Market Update: Q1 2025 Overview

The first quarter of 2025 saw the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market characterized by slower sales activity compared to the previous year, alongside evolving inventory levels and price adjustments. This update from inCAN Developments provides a fact-based look at the key trends shaping the GTA housing market in early 2025, offering insights for buyers, sellers, and industry watchers.

Market Overview: A Slower Pace

Activity in the GTA residential market moderated in the first quarter compared to the same period in 2024. Economic factors, including trade uncertainty and anticipation of interest rate movements, contributed to a cautious approach from many potential buyers.

• Overall Sales: Residential property sales totaled 12,899 units in Q1 2025, a decrease of 21.3% compared to Q1 2024.

• Sales by Type: Compared to Q1 2024, sales slowed across all major housing types: single-detached homes (-23.3%), semi-detached homes (-13.6%), condo townhouses (-23.5%), and condo apartments (-20.0%).

Listings and Inventory: Increased Choice for Buyers

The market saw a notable increase in listings compared to the previous year, leading to higher inventory levels and shifting market dynamics.

• New Listings: March 2025 saw new listings up 28.6% year-over-year. January also saw a large year-over-year increase (48.6%) in new listings.

• Active Inventory: Overall inventory levels have risen, providing buyers with more options. By March 2025, the GTA had 4.9 months of inventory, nearly double the level from March 2024 and significantly above the long-run average.

• Market Balance: Increased inventory shifted the market balance. As of March 2025, the overall GTA, along with Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, Oshawa, and the Kitchener-Waterloo Region, were considered buyer's markets based on the Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR).

Pricing Trends: Modest Adjustments

Home prices showed modest declines compared to the previous year, although they remained relatively stable despite slower sales.

• Overall Median Prices (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024):

  • Single Detached: $1,250,000 (-2.0%)

  • Semi-Detached: $1,005,000 (-2.3%)

  • Condo Townhouse: $750,000 (-2.1%)

  • Condo Apartment: $600,000 (-4.4%)

• Average Selling Price (March 2025): The average selling price across all home types in the GTA was $1,093,254 in March 2025, down 2.5% compared to March 2024.

Market Dynamics and Looking Ahead

The Q1 2025 market reflected buyer caution amid economic uncertainty. Affordability improved slightly compared to the previous year due to dips in both average prices and borrowing costs.

Experts anticipate that lower borrowing costs expected later in 2025 could stimulate demand, potentially leading to increased sales and moderate price growth as the year progresses. However, the recovery may be uneven across different market segments and regions. The well-supplied condo apartment market might see slower price growth compared to single-family homes.

Stay informed with inCAN Developments for ongoing updates on the dynamic Greater Toronto Area real estate market.

Disclaimer: This article summarizes data from various sources including CREA, TRREB, WOWA.ca, CMHC and market analyses for Q1 2025 and surrounding months. Market conditions are subject to change.